CCL: New Paper: Making Priors a Priority

["Matt Segall" <matt.segall()optibrium.com>]

 Sent to CCL by: "Matt  Segall" [matt.segall---optibrium.com]
 A new paper, "Making Priors a Priority" addresses a key challenge the
 community
 needs to address to get the most out of the predictive models we build. Just
 published on-line in J. Comp. Aided Mol. Design (DOI 10.1007/s10822-010-9388-
 7), the paper discusses the question, "How useful will a model be in making
 a
 decision in a practical context?" To answer this requires an understanding
 of
 the prior probability distribution (the prior) and hence prevalence of
 negative outcomes due to the property being assessed.
 The full paper can be downloaded from the Springer website at
 http://www.springerlink.com/content/x15h763770611316/ or a
 free preprint is
 available from the Optibrium on-line community at
 http://www.optibrium.com/community/publications/110-making-priors-a-priority.